Possible scenario
Ukraine Retaliates
25% Chance
Kyiv is likely to answer Russian raids with further drone attacks on Russian military logistics, refineries and fuel depots. Such strikes would fit Ukraine's recent pattern of targeting the energy and transport infrastructure that supports Russian operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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