Possible scenario
Raids Continue
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of Russia's air and drone campaign against Ukrainian cities, energy nodes and research facilities. Moscow has repeatedly used waves of missiles and drones after Ukrainian strikes, while Kyiv's air defenses limit but do not prevent civilian casualties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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