Possible scenario
Strike Tempo Expands
19% Chance
Moscow treats the Kharkiv strike as proof that Ukrainian AI-turret sites can be found and attacked, then broadens the campaign against air-defense nodes and related power links. This would still be an escalation inside an ongoing war, not a systemic global shock, but it would modestly lift defense demand and geopolitical risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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