Possible scenario
Sanctions Escalate
25% Chance
The visa action becomes a precursor to narrower Treasury sanctions against named individuals, front companies, or corruption networks. This would still be limited in scope, but markets would pay more attention if OFAC designations touched Venezuela-linked oil or financial intermediaries.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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