Possible scenario
Coalition Tilts Settler
19% Chance
Far-right ministers could use the incident to constrain army-backed returns of displaced Palestinians and deepen civilian-settler influence over West Bank enforcement. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir would likely argue that military decisions are ignoring settler security concerns.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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