Possible scenario
Geopolitical Premium Dominates
22% Chance
Supply risk outweighs the demand downgrade if Iran-linked tensions around Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb intensify. This would lift crude and energy shares while pressuring airlines, travel and broader risk sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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