Possible scenario
Backlash Narrows Policy
18% Chance
The policy draws criticism from lawmakers, European partners and sanctions hawks who argue that it rewards opaque shadow-fleet operators. Treasury keeps the framework alive but narrows eligibility and slows approvals.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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