Narrative Containment Succeeds

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Russian authorities frame the deaths as a heroic service tragedy and prevent the crash from becoming a public debate over military readiness. State media highlights funerals, decorations, and continuity of operations rather than technical failure.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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