Possible scenario
Direct Military Escalation
25% Chance
The explosion of a fully laden supertanker pushes the United States and regional partners toward more aggressive suppression of IRGC mining activity. The risk of direct US-Iran clashes rises sharply, with markets focused on whether the conflict remains at sea or spreads to Gulf infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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