Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
20% Chance
The scale of the supertanker explosion prompts urgent mediation by Oman, Qatar, China, and European governments that depend on Gulf energy flows. Tehran may accept a limited pause if it can claim deterrence success while avoiding a direct US military campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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