Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Crisis
35% Chance
The tanker explosion confirms the Strait of Hormuz remains dangerous, but Washington, Gulf states, and commercial operators prevent a full shutdown. Shipping volumes stay impaired, yet escorted convoys and minesweeping create enough confidence to avoid a broader military exchange.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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