Orderly Yield Digestion

The most likely path is that investors absorb the 5% 10-year Treasury yield as a painful but orderly repricing of Fed policy and inflation persistence. Risk assets weaken selectively, but there is no broad liquidation because the move was foreshadowed by the recent bond selloff.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.