Possible scenario
Hawkish Repricing Extends
28% Chance
Investors may decide the 5% 10-year yield is not the endpoint if inflation remains too persistent for the Fed to pause. This would pressure duration-heavy equities, real estate, utilities, and leveraged balance sheets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.3%
- Utilities -2.0%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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