Possible scenario
Growth Scare Emerges
18% Chance
A competing outcome is that the 5% yield becomes the trigger for a growth scare rather than a sustained bear-market move in bonds. Investors rotate toward safety, pulling Treasury yields lower while credit and cyclical equities weaken.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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