Possible scenario
Political Narrowing
25% Chance
Crypto industry lobbying, member-state concerns, and legal uncertainty lead lawmakers to narrow ESMA's plan before it becomes binding. The final approach focuses on entities with custody, fee control, or administrative control over interfaces, leaving most open-source protocols outside direct licensing.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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