Possible scenario
Reversal Gains Traction
35% Chance
The bipartisan Senate demand adds political cost to the Trump-Putin diesel arrangement, especially after Fitzpatrick's planned ban. The White House pauses or narrows the license while trying to avoid blame for high diesel prices.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.