Possible scenario
Sustained Kyiv Pressure
45% Chance
Russia continues using ballistic missiles and drones to pressure Kyiv’s urban infrastructure, especially transit nodes and power-linked facilities. The pattern remains severe for Ukraine but broadly consistent with the recent campaign, limiting the immediate global market reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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