Possible scenario
Infrastructure Escalation
20% Chance
Moscow broadens the campaign from transport disruption to a heavier winter infrastructure offensive. This would be a material escalation within the war, with modest but noticeable cross-asset risk-off effects over the next one to two trading days.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.9%
- Technology -0.6%
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance -0.3%
Tickers
- RTX+2.1%
- LMT+2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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