Possible scenario
Air Defense Response
25% Chance
The attack accelerates allied debate over replenishing Ukraine’s depleted Patriot, NASAMS, and SAMP/T interceptor stocks. The central question is whether Western governments can move quickly enough to change near-term interception rates over Kyiv.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Tickers
- RTX+1.2%
- LMT+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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