Possible scenario
War Grinds On
45% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is continuation of Israel's Gaza operations with periodic civilian and journalist deaths, strong NGO criticism, and no decisive change in Israeli or Hamas behavior. The war has already absorbed repeated international condemnation without producing a durable ceasefire.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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