Possible scenario
Mediation Revives
25% Chance
Despite Qatar's statement that Israel rejected a Hamas hostage offer, the mounting civilian and journalist toll could push Doha, Cairo, and Washington to restart shuttle diplomacy. A narrow humanitarian pause remains more plausible than a comprehensive end to the war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Tickers
- ESLT-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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