Possible scenario
U.S. Retaliates Militarily
30% Chance
Washington could conclude that repeated tanker hits require a direct military response to restore deterrence. The likely U.S. objective would be limited strikes on IRGC naval assets, but the risk of Iranian retaliation would keep markets under stress.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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