Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Forms
20% Chance
Regional intermediaries have strong incentives to prevent a closure of the Strait that would damage Gulf exporters and global consumers. Iran may accept a short pause if it can claim leverage over U.S. sanctions and escorted shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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