Possible scenario
Convoys Contain Damage
35% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is a dangerous but bounded maritime crisis. The U.S., U.K., and Gulf partners expand escorted convoys while Iran continues calibrated harassment rather than attempting a full closure of the Strait.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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