Possible scenario
Protests And Gridlock
20% Chance
Student groups and teachers' unions frame the 32% pension-cost ratio as evidence that classrooms are being sacrificed to fiscal consolidation. The most likely disruption is politically noisy but economically contained unless the 2027 budget vote becomes unstable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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