Possible scenario
Pension Reform Reopened
27% Chance
Officials use the education-budget strain to argue that the 2023 pension overhaul did not go far enough to stabilize public finances. Any new measure is likely to be incremental, focused on indexation, employer contributions, or public-sector accounting rather than another immediate retirement-age increase.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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