Possible scenario
Stalemate Continues
22% Chance
Trump refuses to make a public commitment, and Democrats continue blocking the permitting bargain. This outcome remains plausible because both sides gain political leverage from the fight: Trump with fossil-fuel and anti-wind constituencies, Democrats with coastal-state and clean-energy interests.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.1%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- GEV-2.1%
- -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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