Possible scenario
Public Pledge Deal
40% Chance
The White House gives Democrats a public, written commitment to restart offshore wind and solar permitting, likely tied to a broader permitting or government-funding bargain. This is the most likely path because Trump already signaled willingness to trade the wind blockade for a permitting deal, and Democrats are now focused on enforceability and public accountability.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.3%
- Industrials +1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- FSLR+2.4%
- GEV+2.4%
- +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.