Possible scenario
Private Compromise
25% Chance
The White House refuses a Trump-branded public pledge but offers written commitments from senior officials at Interior, EPA, or Energy. Democrats may accept if the terms include project lists, deadlines, and oversight, though distrust remains high after the September deal collapsed.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Tickers
- FSLR+0.7%
- NEE+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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