Possible scenario
Temporary Hormuz Disruption
23% Chance
A more severe but still limited disruption emerges if tanker operators, insurers, or Gulf exporters temporarily halt some voyages through the Strait. This would not be a formal closure, but even a partial interruption of Gulf crude and LNG flows would produce a sharp near-term energy shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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