Possible scenario
Contained Military Escalation
42% Chance
The most likely path is a limited escalation in which Washington and Tehran continue tit-for-tat military actions without a formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Navy increases escorts and may strike IRGC launch sites, while Iran keeps attacks deniable or limited enough to avoid full-scale war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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