Possible scenario
Diplomatic Reset Attempt
15% Chance
The strike becomes a catalyst for renewed US-French pressure to clarify cease-fire enforcement rules. Israel retains the right to act against Hezbollah movements, but a monitoring mechanism reduces the odds of immediate follow-on strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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