Possible scenario
Calibrated Hezbollah Response
27% Chance
Hezbollah or an allied local unit responds in a controlled way to preserve deterrence without collapsing the cease-fire. Israel answers with limited strikes against launch sites, producing a short spike in regional risk perception but not a broader war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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