Possible scenario
Parliamentary Workaround Forms
40% Chance
President Nicusor Dan and mainstream parties move around George Simion's blockade by assembling a PSD-PNL-USR-UDMR backed cabinet or confidence-and-supply deal. Georgescu remains in custody while the new government pledges judicial independence and EU alignment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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