Possible scenario
SPD Stabilizes Coalition
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the SPD uses the December vote to reset its leadership without leaving government. With AfD polling strength making early elections risky for both CDU and SPD, party elites have strong incentives to contain the revolt and preserve the Merz coalition.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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