Possible scenario
Demand Holds Up
30% Chance
The market looks past the guidance cut if booking data show business, premium leisure, and transatlantic demand are still healthy. In this outcome, the profit warning is seen as a fuel-cost issue rather than a demand problem.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
- UAL+2.0%
- DAL+1.0%
- AAL+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.