Possible scenario
Republicans Limit Damage
25% Chance
Republicans argue that the president's approval has reached a durable floor and focus on turnout, immigration and tax policy. If inflation readings improve slightly or real wages stabilize, GOP candidates can distance themselves from the approval drag enough to prevent a wave.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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