Possible scenario
Severe Disruption Escalates
20% Chance
El Niño conditions and persistent Indonesian fires push Singapore into very unhealthy air quality for longer periods. The disruption hits outdoor work, tourism, aviation operations, and hospitality spending more visibly, though the shock remains regional rather than global.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Business Services -0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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