Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Campaign
27% Chance
Riyadh responds to the terminal attack with strikes on launch sites, radar assets, and suspected Iranian-linked logistics nodes in Yemen. The response is intended to restore deterrence after repeated attacks on the capital, but it raises the odds of further Houthi missile launches.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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