Possible scenario
Mediated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman and the United Nations use the airport attack to restart emergency contacts between Saudi officials and Houthi representatives. Riyadh does not accept a broad political settlement, but it may tolerate a short halt in missile fire if airport and Red Sea attacks pause.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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