Possible scenario
Contained Airport Disruption
38% Chance
Saudi air defenses and emergency crews restore limited operations at King Khalid International Airport while keeping heightened alert levels around Riyadh. The Houthis claim a symbolic victory, but neither side immediately shifts to a wider campaign against oil facilities or Gulf shipping.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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