Possible scenario
Terms Stall in Kyiv
28% Chance
Putin's acceptance shifts pressure onto Kyiv and European capitals, where sovereignty, territorial recognition, and security guarantees remain politically explosive. Negotiations continue, but the first market relief fades as investors see a high risk of parliamentary, constitutional, or alliance-level delay.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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