Possible scenario
Result Contested
25% Chance
Opposition parties in Republika Srpska, likely including the PDP and SDS, challenge the count in selected municipalities and accuse SNSD of irregularities. The dispute delays political bargaining but does not immediately overturn the general direction of the result.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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