Possible scenario
NATO Airspace Response
25% Chance
A more serious but still plausible path is that a Russian drone or debris crosses into Polish airspace, forcing Poland and NATO to respond publicly. This would likely trigger emergency consultations, additional air-defense deployments, and sharper warnings to Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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