Possible scenario
US Retaliation Hardens
18% Chance
Washington treats the bounty offer as part of a broader Iranian campaign against U.S. forces. The response is more likely to be calibrated military action against militia facilities or expanded sanctions than a direct strike on Iranian territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.