Possible scenario
Contained Proxy Intimidation
45% Chance
Iran's reward offer functions mainly as coercive messaging after recent U.S. sanctions and strikes. U.S. Central Command tightens force-protection rules, but Tehran and allied militias avoid a confirmed attack that would invite a larger U.S. response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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