Possible scenario
Attack Attempt Emerges
25% Chance
The reward offer encourages a militia cell or unaffiliated actor to attempt an attack against U.S. personnel or contractors. The most plausible targets are lightly defended transport routes, housing compounds, or logistics nodes in Jordan, Iraq or eastern Syria.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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