Possible scenario
Arms Control Reopens
19% Chance
The visible erosion of Russia's air-delivered nuclear force creates incentives for both sides to reduce uncertainty. Even without reviving New START, Washington and Moscow could use military-to-military channels to exchange limited notifications.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Finance +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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