Possible scenario
Higher Courts Revive
18% Chance
A less likely but still plausible outcome is that a circuit court or the Supreme Court grants a stay, allowing the administration to collect some version of the fee while litigation continues. That would sharply increase near-term uncertainty for H-1B-heavy employers and could depress planned registrations.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -2.3%
- Technology -1.3%
- Healthcare -0.5%
Tickers
- CTSH-4.3%
- AMZN-0.5%
- MSFT-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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