Possible scenario
Strain Mismatch Confirmed
18% Chance
A less favorable outcome is that the current strain is meaningfully different from the strain targeted by Ervebo. That would force a pivot toward alternative vaccines, therapeutics and more restrictive public-health measures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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